The Agreement between ВР and Rosneft: Consequences for Ukraine

Posted by Ivan Matiyeshyn on 02/11/12

The strategic agreement between Rosneft and BP is mutually advantageous. Apart from considerable means, British receive stocks of the Russian oil monopolist and the guaranteed presence in the Russian market. And what’s most important, ВР gets access to the development of the Russian part of the Arctic shelf.

After the finalization of the agreement the head of Rosneft I.Sechin will receive the status of the generator of energy assets of Russia. Formally thanks to his efforts Russia has got another state oil monopolist of the Gazprom level. As the head of Rosneft and Rosneftegaz, he receives control over enormous monetary streams. The rates of privatization supported by the government will depend on him even more. It was foreseen earlier that a part of means of Rosneft would be directed at this initiative. It looks like terms, objects and parts of companies for the privatization will be changed. And the list of strategic energy enterprises can be refilled.

The consequences of the specified agreement will be tangible for Ukraine as well.

Firstly, the TNK-BP was an influential player in the Ukrainian market of oil products. Having changed the TNK-BP brand, Rosneft will be able to play with prices of oil products. Ukraine managed to diversify the majority of them. They were coming from the Baltic, Poland, Romania and Belarus. Using Rosneft, Russia will try to change the situation to its advantage.

Secondly, the monopoly right of Rosneft to the development of hydrocarbon deposits will entail the reorientation of the private Russian companies to the adjacent markets. The last initiatives of the heads of Gazprom and Rosneft on the prohibition of admission of these companies to the development of the Arctic shelf will strengthen this tendency even more. In Ukraine they will be interested in possible participation in the development of the Black Sea shelf. Rosneft can favor private Russian companies in this process. That is, control over their activity will spread on the projects connected with Ukraine as well.

Thirdly, Ukraine will receive additional political risks in relations with Russia. Advantages of Ukraine in case it joins the Customs Union can become more obvious. Especially, in terms of introduction of the preferential regime. From now on if necessary, Russia will be able to have an impact on the probable deficit of oil products in Ukraine even more. However, to gradually raise prices and receive super-profits is apparently more favorable, than to destabilize the situation.

 

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