August 6, 2012
According to the legislation of Ukraine, the parliamentary electoral campaign has started on July 30. The elections, which will take place on October 28, are conducted by the mixed system – 225 members of parliament (MPs) are elected by party lists and 225 – in majority districts. Already on August 20 all registered candidates, both in party lists and majority districts, will become officially known.
The electoral threshold for parties is 5%. Today two political forces have the greatest electoral support in Ukraine: the Party of Regions and the “United opposition” (Tymoshenko’s “Batkivschyna” + Yatsenyuk’s “Front for change”). According to averaged data of Ukrainian sociological services, they have on average 23% of support of voters each at the start of the electoral campaign.
The main feature of the parliamentary elections is the system of counting votes which basically isn’t independent and transparent. Therefore, we will have 3 results: the number of voters ready to vote according to sociological forecasts, the number of those who did really vote and the number of bulletins which will turn out to be in ballot boxes.
Two more political forces can theoretically get through to the parliament. It is UDAR party of boxer Vitaliy Klychko (7%) and the Communist party of Ukraine (6%). Despite the rating of “UDAR” party, this force will hardly “be allowed to get” into the parliament. Klychko isn’t ready to compromises.
The party of N.Korolevska “Ukraine – Forward!”, which declares liberal views, and the All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” led by the supporter of national ideas O.Tyagnybok yet fall short of threshold 5%. However, after the world-famous football player A.Shevchenko entered the party list of “Ukraine – Forward!”, the chances of this party to get into the parliament have considerably grown.
However, with the date of elections coming closer, the results of surveys of Ukrainian sociological services start to get pre-paid and manipulative signs. Forecasts of political scientists also differ very much, and participation of well-known athletes transforms elections into the “Ukrainian Olympic Games” – the main thing is participation.
We can note that the leadership of Ukraine is interested in the guaranteed passing into the parliament of 4 political forces. It is the “United opposition”, which has a real support at the level of 18-21% (which is about 90 seats in the parliament according to party lists), the Party of Regions – 14-16 % (70), “Ukraine – Forward!” – 8-10% (40) and the Communist party – 6-8% (25). Regardless of censorship, the press is full of messages about “Ukraine – Forward!” being the project of the Presidential Administration. Although, certainly, no proof will ever be found.
The main polemic of these elections takes place around the formation of the constitutional majority consisting of 300 MPs for the change of the Constitution in favor of the further increase of powers of the Presidential power vertical.
For the legislative and political balance opposition needs to win over 150 mandates. Meanwhile, this is only slogans, dreams and ambitions. And people continue to look for new forces.
Author : Ivan Matiyeshyn